Ryli Dunlap
3 min readDec 3, 2024

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I think we are in agreement about the Ukraine conflict. It was pointless and unnecessary and stupid for Ukraine (with Western insistence) to provoke Russia.

I wouldn't be too sure about the US support for Israel never ending. Here's a few things to consider:

1. The known reserves of oil in the world are estimated to last about 30 years. After that, the oil is gone. With its oil depleted, the region will be far less of a strategic interest of the US

2. Many Americans are already uneasy about US support for Israel, and how much of they are taxed to support a foreign country (Israel is by far the largest recipient of foreign aid from the US).

3. As the US economy continues to sputter and falter, I think public support for expensive foreign wars will wane. The domestic situation in the US is going from bad to worse. Homelessness is at crisis levels. Many average people can no longer afford the basic necessities of life. 'Supporting/Promoting Democracy' abroad is actually a low priority for most Americans:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/03/02/americans-put-low-priority-on-promoting-democracy-abroad-2/

4. The incoming Trump Administration is supportive of Israel, sure. But I think they want a war with China more than anything. Trump's cabinets are extremely hawkish on China and this seems to be where things are headed. The US may not be able to back a war in Ukraine, back Israel, and fight its own war with China if it gets to that (in addition to its domestic and economic woes). I think Ukraine is going to wind down soon one way or another. US politicians are already urging this so that efforts can be focused on China (and to some extent Iran). But, if the US gets into a direct conflict with China, that will 100% be the priority, and the US will pull resources from elsewhere to confront it - including Israel.

5. The US has been at loggerheads with Israel and its leadership before. Cooling relations between the two countries is not out of the question. Reagan famously ordered Israel out of Lebanon and threatened to cut off aid. The Israelis risked starting WW3 during the 6-day war by pushing towards Cairo. The US told them they would not intervene if they came into conflict with Soviet forces in Egypt. In both cases, Israel complied, because it cannot carry out such operations without US backing.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/05/24/ronald-reagan-wasnt-afraid-to-use-leverage-to-hold-israel-to-task/

6. Israel is experiencing its own domestic turmoil, weakening economy, political crises, and internal divisions and rifts. Israel could very well rip itself apart regardless of US aid/backing. Israeli national identity is largely built on a myth of Jewish unity, but like all religions, it is a fractious one with various competing sects, interests, ideologies, and infighting.

I think the assumption you might be making is that the US will always act to defend 'Western Values' or 'democracy'. It does not. It defends its own economic interests, even if those are at complete odds with the mythical 'Western Values' you talk so much about.

The US empire will readily back tyrants and depose democratically-elected leaders (as it has many times in the past) if it serves its economic interests. US foreign policy is guided by capitalism/imperialism and its amoral drive towards profit and seizing 'market share'. The second Israel is no longer useful to this sole aim, support for it will drop. It is not out of the question.

The US used to back apartheid South Africa, until it didn't. It used to back Saddam Hussein, until it didn't. It used to support the Mujhadeen in Afghanistan, until it didn't. It used to back the Kurds in Iraq, until it didn't.

It's very possible that within our lifetime, Israel could be added to that list.

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Ryli Dunlap
Ryli Dunlap

Written by Ryli Dunlap

Aspiring writer. Recovering programmer. Many opinions — some unpopular. I unload them here. Blog: https://pontifi.co Dance/Music: https://rylito.com

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